Saturday, March 31, 2007

Final Foresight

The best sporting event in the world will tip off in, oh, about T-minus six hours and counting.
In terms of drama and edge-of-the-seat entertainment, there’s really nothing else that can compare to the NCAA Final Four.
So let’s make a few predictions. I've been correct on a few thus far -- I had Florida, UCLA and Georgetown in my Final Four, but so did another 23.4 million or so hoopheads globally. That Kreskin-like power of prediction emboldens me to bounce these ideas out into the blogosphere:

UCLA vs. FLORIDA
Breakdown: UCLA represents the basketball equivalent of fingernails scraping a chalkboard. The Bruins provide non-stop annoyance on defense, thanks to the trapping defense employed by coach Ben Howland. They clog passing lanes as quickly as an Outback bloomin' onion will your arteries and often produce turnovers with well-timed low post double-teams.
Florida represents a much tougher assignment in that regard because big men Al Horford and Joakim Noah have decent handle and are excellent passers. Plus, the Gators can use 6-foot-8 Corey Brewer as a psuedo-point guard of sorts to see over defense if necessary.
Both teams will rip it from 3-point range. The Gators knock down 40 percent from beyond the arc, while UCLA's Arron Afflalo, Darren Collison and Josh Shipp can fill it up.
To me, the game will hinge on whether UCLA can deny the low post from the Gators.
Prediction: Florida guard Taurean Green breaks down the UCLA defense and Horford and Noah prove to be too much too handle ... Florida 78, UCLA 73.

GEORGETOWN vs. OHIO STATE
Breakdown: This will be like the movie Jurassic Park, where the T-Rex's fight each other to the death. It's rare to see two 7-foot players of comparable ability joust at the college level. Takes me back to the days of my youth -- Ralph Sampson vs. Patrick Ewing.
Georgetown's 7-foot-2 Roy Hibbert isn't quite as dynamic as Ewing was, but he takes up a LOT of space and plays air traffic controller in the lane. Ohio State 7-footer Greg Oden may be a freshman, but check the birth certificate. I swear he looks like he's 32, at least.
The only problem is that both players have demonstrated a knack for getting into early foul trouble. Hopefully, the referees won't call it too tight and deprive us of a great individual matchup.
Both teams have outstanding supporting casts as well, with forward Jeff Green driving the Hoyas’ bus and point guard Mike Conley Jr. and shooter Ron Lewis making clutch shots for the Buckeyes.
Prediction: The Hoyas and Buckeyes are even in personnel, but I love Georgetown's concepts. They play a variation of the Princeton offense and run back cuts better than those slow-footed Ivy Leaguers. ... Georgetown 81, OSU 78.

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Smart move for Dawgs

The University of Georgia has made more than a few mistakes over the years when it comes to coaches.
Ray Goff, anyone?
Glen Mason?
The ungraceful ouster of Vince Dooley as athletic director?
The disgraceful exit of Jim Harrick and his staff?
The Bulldogs did something right Wednesday.
They gave basketball coach Dennis Felton a two-year contract extension through 2010-11 and bumped his annual pay up to $760,000, a $50,000-per-year raise.
It’s a gesture well-deserved in light of what he’s done since taking over as the Bulldogs’ head coach. He’s 58-62 in four years, but that’s indicative of the mess he was forced to clean up when he arrived on campus. He guided Georgia to a 19-14 record and an NIT berth this past season and took them to the fringe of NCAA tournament consideration.
That should tell you that he has the goods when it comes to X's and O's. He's also signed an impressive recruiting class that includes highly-regarded 6-foot-9 forward Jeremy Price. Best of all, he seems intent on rebuilding Georgia basketball the right way.
Don’t be surprised if the Bulldogs are in the NCAA tournament next March. They weren't far off track this past season and will only get better.
It was smart of Georgia to recognize the potential Felton holds before other schools started taking notice.

Thursday, March 22, 2007

Bracket going bust

How’s your NCAA tournament bracket doing?
Yeah, mine too.
The good news is that my pre-tournament Final Four picks -- Florida, Kansas, Georgetown and Texas A&M -- are still dribbling at this point. The bad news is that, for the second straight year, my wife is absolutely killing me on overall picks and stands to win our mutual wager. The loser picks up dinner at a restaurant of the winner's choice and, well, it looks like I'd better start warming up the old Visa card in the bullpen.
I know where I went wrong. I bought into the notion that this tournament would produce another warm-and-fuzzy George Mason, a team with pedestrian credentials that would shock the basketball world by reaching the Final Four as a 10 or 11 seed. So, as you can imagine, I received a rude awakening that fairy tales aren't written every year.
I thought I was smart to pick a mid-major from Virginia to spring a first-round upset. I picked the wrong one. Should've gone with Virginia Commonwealth instead of Old Dominion. In retrospect, it was also a terrible idea to pick Arkansas over Southern Cal in the first round. Apparently, I learned nothing from their last two football meetings (cumulative score: USC 2,367,521 ... Arkansas 3).
Live and learn.
So today, I'm trying to regain whatever street cred I lost as a prognosticator.
Let's take a look at this week’s Sweet 16 matchups.

SOUTH REGIONAL
(3) Texas A&M vs. (2) Memphis
Breakdown: In addition to having a clutch shooter and unparalleled playmaker in guard Acie Law IV, Texas A&M possesses a team full of lock-down specialists. The Aggies give up 59.3 points per game and practically crawl inside the jerseys of 3-point shooters. They allow opponents to make just 29.4 percent of their 3-pointers, and that means Memphis could be in trouble. The Tigers excel in transition, but could have difficulty forcing the tempo if leading scorer Chris Douglas-Roberts is sidelined by a balky ankle.
Prediction: Still sticking with the Aggies. I'm thinking Law, aka Captain Clutch, makes the difference late. Texas A&M 71, Memphis 66.

(1) Ohio State vs. (5) Tennessee
Breakdown: The size differential is about as profound as it gets. Ohio State has a well-rounded 7-footer in freshman Greg Oden. Tennessee has a 6-foot-4 quasi-power forward in Dane Bradshaw. Actually, the Vols don't fit traditional position descriptions because they play all over the court. If Chris Lofton and Bradshaw are burying 3-pointers, it will reduce Oden's impact.
Prediction: I think Ohio State is vulnerable. Xavier should have finished off the Buckeyes over the weekend. Tennessee won't be fazed by OSU's talent, having lost to the Buckeyes 68-66 in January. ... In an upset, I'm thinking Tennessee 79, OSU 74.

WEST REGIONAL
(1) Kansas vs. (4) Southern Illinois
Breakdown: I love, love, love the way Southern Illinois plays. There's a cockiness about the Salukis, who have played man-to-man defense on every possession this season. They are small but physical and will challenge anybody. That said, Kansas has too many offensive options for them. Don't see how the Salukis are going to solve Brandon Rush, who absolutely decimated Kentucky.
Prediction: Sorry, Salukis. ... Kansas 80, Southern Illinois 68.

(2) UCLA vs. (3) Pittsburgh
Breakdown: Thanks to the matchup of Ben Howland vs. his former Pitt assistant, we'll see the Mentor vs. Student story that CBS loves so much. Pitt center Aaron Gray could be a factor, but UCLA has quickness at every position. They've also proven they can play a halfcourt game, as evidenced by their ability to hold their first two tournament opponents to a combined 91 points.
Prediction: Arron Afflalo breaks out of his shooting slump. UCLA 75, Pitt 67.

EAST REGIONAL
(2) Georgetown vs. (6) Vanderbilt
Breakdown: Vanderbilt might be the most frightening draw among the non-No. 1 and 2 seeds. The Commodores can spread the court and bury you with 3-pointers. SEC player of the year Derrick Byars went berserk against Washington State, scoring 15 of his 27 points on treys. Note to Georgetown: Box-and-one? Of course, Vanderbilt will have trouble doing anything inside the line if Georgetown center Roy Hibbert stays out of foul trouble. The kid looks like Patrick Ewing of a lesser god.
Prediction: Both teams run variations of the Princeton offense. G'town might run theirs a little bit better... Hoya Paranoia 61, Vanderbilt 57.

(1) UNC vs. (5) USC
Breakdown: UNC sophomore forward Tyler Hansbrough took off the Phantom of the Opera mask he wore after having his nose broken against Duke and absolutely went off against Michigan State. The Heels push the ball and have an athletic frontcourt led by Hansbrough and Brandan Wright.
Prediction: UNC 84, USC 71.

MIDWEST REGIONAL
(1) Florida vs. (5) Butler
Breakdown: The Gators have outscored their first two tournament opponents by 46 points in the second half. They have yet to play a complete game in the NCAA tournament and that doesn't bode well for plucky Butler. Look for Florida forward Corey Brewer to provide an impossible matchup for the Bulldogs.
Prediction: Florida 70, Butler 56.

(3) Oregon vs. (7) UNLV
Breakdown: Oregon doesn't have a deep bench, but the Ducks have been one of the hottest teams down the stretch this season. They've won eight games in a row, largely because they defend well and make their free throws (75.6 percent as a team). UNLV has a solid backcourt with Kevin Kruger and the wonderfully-named Wink Adams, but will have trouble slowing down the Ducks.
Prediction: In the words of a certain spokesduck ... Af-lac! Oregon 83, UNLV 76.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Hoop Heaven

By now, you’ve filled out your NCAA tournament bracket and made plans to play hookey from work Thursday to celebrate the beginning of March Madness.
The promise of wall-to-wall basketball is a great reason to become one with your recliner. Here are some of the first round games that hold the promise of high entertainment value:

* East Regional:
No. 3 Washington State vs. No. 14 Oral Roberts -- We’ve come to expect upsets in 3 vs. 14 games, and this could be the one. Washington State features competent guard play and the odds-on favorite for national coach of the year in Tony Bennett, but the Cougars haven’t been to the NCAA tournament since 1994. Oral Roberts enters the tournament with some momentum, having won eight of its last 10, and features a dependable inside scorer in power forward Caleb Green (20.8 ppg, 9.3 rpg).
No. 5 Southern Cal vs. No. 12 Arkansas -- Arkansas (21-13) backed into the field on the strength of its performance in the Southeastern Conference tournament and could give USC fits. Forward Charles Thomas and center Steven Hill provide the Razorbacks with a commanding size advantage.

* South Regional:
No. 7 Nevada vs. No. 10 Creighton -- Nevada forward Nick Fazekas, a 6-foot-11 senior, brings an NBA-quality skill set to the court. As good as he is, the Wolf Pack could be undone by so-so defense. Creighton is balanced and features a lethal shooter in Nate Funk (17.6 ppg, 54 3-pointers, 86.7 percent on free throws).
No. 8 BYU vs. No. 9 Xavier -- It’s hard not to like the Xavier Musketeers, who have won nine of their last 10 behind guard Drew Lavender (11.2 points, 4.6 assists per game).

* Midwest Regional:
No. 5 Butler vs. No. 12 Old Dominion -- Butler rose to as high as 10th in the Associated Press poll, but have been in a freefall of late. The Bulldogs are 4-4 in their last eight games. On the other hand, Old Dominion might represent a surprise Sweet 16 team-in-waiting. The Monarchs have won nine of their last 10 and are tough in the paint. Post players Arnaud Dahi and Valdas Vasylius both average more than six rebounds per game.
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Winthrop -- The Big South Conference owns a 1-15 record in NCAA tournament play, but so many of us have bought into Winthrop as this year’s George Mason. Because of the difficulty of the regional, it's difficult to envision the Eagles getting past the round of 32. This might represent the most entertaining first-round matchup.
No. 7 UNLV vs. No. 10 Georgia Tech -- The Yellow Jackets have won just one true road game in the last two years and have been up-and-down all season, but I have a feeling about them. Point guard Javaris Crittenton is a complete player who could carry Tech to a couple victories.

* West Regional:
No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 9 Villanova -- Kentucky coach Tubby Smith really, really needs a win or two in this tournament. The Wildcats have lost six of the last nine games and the statements made UK's athletic director shouldn’t be taken as iron-clad votes of confidence. The fact is, this team has underachieved -- and has for a couple seasons now.

What games are you most looking forward to watching? Better yet, who are your Final Four picks?

Thursday, March 08, 2007

Around the Horn

ATLANTA — Since I’ve got a break in between games at the Southeastern Conference basketball tournament, let’s talk about football.
Specifically, let’s take a look at what’s happening just up I-75 in Flowery Branch.
In another 20 minutes or so, the Atlanta Falcons will introduce newly-signed wide receiver Joe Horn at a press conference.
After blogging the other day about the free agents the Falcons lost, what do you think of the decision to offer a 4-year, $19 million deal to Horn?
He’s easily the most recognizable free agent signed by the Falcons to date, the others being fullback Ovie Mughelli, linebacker Marcus Wilkins and cornerback Lewis Sanders. But it's too early to tell if the Falcons bought something more valuable than a recognizable name off the free agent market.
New Orleans released the 35-year-old Horn, partly because the development of other receivers made him expendable. But there were also concerns about his age and durability. He missed six games last season due to injury and only managed five touchdown grabs in the last two seasons.
Still, you have to like his body of work even if there are questions about whether his body can hold up. His career numbers -- 576 catches, 8,501 yards and 57 touchdowns -- make him an intriguing acquisition.
If nothing else, the Falcons can look to Horn as a player-coach of sorts. Roddy White and Michael Jenkins flashed some potential last season amidst all the dropped passes, but will benefit from Horn's guidance.

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

On a wing and a player

To the last free agent leaving the Georgia Dome: Please remember to turn out the lights.
The Atlanta Falcons will look decidedly different under first-year head coach Bobby Petrino this fall, and that can't possibly be a bad thing given the last two late-season collapses.
But Petrino and general manager Rich McKay can't afford to make any mistakes with regard to the free agent market or the April draft.
Atlanta’s defense took a serious personnel hit Monday when defensive end Patrick Kerney accepted a 6-year, $39.5 million offer from the Seattle Seahawks. The Falcons couldn’t afford to ante up to keep their 1999 first-round choice, who was an unrestricted free agent, and their defense will likely suffer for it.
When John Abraham was healthy last season -- granted, it was brief -- he and Kerney formed perhaps the league's most dangerous pass-rushing duo. Which player would you double-team? Unless the Falcons pull a surprise player out of free agency, Abraham’s numbers (assuming he stays healthy) will likely suffer as the result of more attention from blockers.
Most of the other losses appear minimal. Offensive guard Matt Lehr, who received a four-game suspension during the season after a positive test for steroids, was released. No problem there since the Falcons are getting away from their old cut-blocking ways.
Wide receiver Ashley Lelie, a free agent, signed a two-year contract with San Francisco on Monday. Again, no big loss. Reputedly an answer to Atlanta's need for a deep threat, Lelie caught just 28 passes for 430 yards last season. It's true that he was wasted in a heavily run-oriented offense, but he dropped quite a few passes.
Aside from Kerney, the only significant loss to date was fullback Justin Griffith.
He revealed himself to be a versatile back last season, filling in at tailback late in the year when injuries left the Falcons with no other alternatives. In addition to being an effective blocker, he was a very capable receiver that the Falcons didn't utilize enough. Fullbacks don't really plug into Petrino's schemes either, so a decent player became expendable.
Still, a big, versatile back who can hammer defenses in short yardage looms as one of the Falcons' many needs.
What would you like to see them do on draft day?
With the 10th overall pick, it's unlikely Georgia Tech receiver and NFL combine freak Calvin Johnson would still be on the board. There's been some talk that LSU safety LaRon Landry, a fierce hitter with sound technique, could be in their sights.
Of all the Falcons' needs, which do you think is the most glaring?