Forecasting the bowls

Remember when bowl games were viewed as a reward for good college football teams?
These days, you get in simply for passing the breathe on a mirror test. That’s where are now with 32 bowl games cluttering the postseason landscape. This year, seven teams with 6-6 records will play in bowl games. Another three will play despite performances that resulted in their head coaches either being fired or forced to resign. You also have to take into consideration the fact that several of those bowl-eligile 6-6 and 7-5 records were achieved at the expense of Division I-AA cupcakes.
So, in essence, we can have more than half the teams in Division I-A playing in mostly meaningless bowl games but we can’t have an eight-team playoff.
That’s college football, but we still love it anyway. That’s why we’ve taken the trouble of projecting how all 32 bowl games will turn out.

Thursday

Poinsetta Bowl
NAVY (8-4) vs. UTAH (8-4)
Former Navy head coach Paul Johnson recently set up shop at Georgia Tech, but the Midshipmen will remain consistent in their approach. The Midshipmen led all Division I schools in rushing yardage (4,218) and touchdowns (51) this season. Utah, a winner of its last six bowl games, will have a hard time stopping the triple option.
Prediction: Navy 41, Utah 35

Friday

New Orleans bowl
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (7-5) vs. MEMPHIS (7-5)
Central Florida and South Florida rose from the mid-major ranks to become football programs of consequence. It looks as if Florida Atlantic isn’t too far away from doing the same.
Prediction: Florida Atlantic 24, Memphis 20

Saturday

Papajohns.com Bowl
CINCINATI (9-3) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (7-5)
Southern Miss could rally around outgoing head coach Jeff Bower, who issued what amounted to a forced resignation in November after 29 years at the school. Still, Cincinnati possesses a hard-nosed defense and the Big East’s most efficient passer in Ben Mauk (2,787 yards, 27 TDs, 6 INTs).
Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Southern Miss 21

New Mexico Bowl
NEW MEXICO (8-4) vs. NEVADA (6-6)
It must be nice for New Mexico to know that it has its own bowl game to play in if a better offer doesn't come along. The Lobos went 5-1 in Albuquerque this year.
Prediction: New Mexico 31, Nevada 28

Las Vegas Bowl
BYU (10-2) vs. UCLA (6-6)
These teams played each other earlier in the season and it wasn't particularly interesting. Why should we think it will be any different this time?
Prediction: BYU 38, UCLA 23

Sunday

Hawaii Bowl
BOISE STATE (10-3) vs. EAST CAROLINA (7-5)
A 39-27 loss at Hawaii in late-November ended Boise State’s hopes of earning a BCS bowl bid for the second straight year. Quarterback Taylor Tharp and tailback Ian Johnson should ensure a much happier outcome on this return trip.
Prediction: Boise State 34, East Carolina 21

Dec. 26

Motor City Bowl
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (8-5) vs. PURDUE (7-5)
Central Michigan quarterback Dan LeFevour might be one of the best players you’ve never heard of. Purdue will certainly get to know LeFevour, who passes for 3,360 yards and rushed for another 1,008 this season.
Prediction: Central Michigan 28, Purdue 23

Dec. 27

Holiday Bowl
ARIZONA STATE (10-2) vs. TEXAS (9-3)
Defense probably won't be a very high priority for either team. Texas allowed 275.5 passing yards per game this season, which bodes well for Arizona State QB Rudy Carpenter (3,015 pass yards, 23 TDs).
Prediction: Arizona State 36, Texas 31

Dec. 28

Champs Sports Bowl
BOSTON COLLEGE (10-3) vs. MICHIGAN STATE (7-5)
Boston College might have difficulty summoning much motivation since it once thought it was on its way to the Orange Bowl. Even so, the Eagles still have super-productive quarterback Matt Ryan.
Prediction: Boston College 21, Michigan State 13

Texas Bowl
HOUSTON (8-4) vs. TEXAS CHRISTIAN (7-5)
Houston coach Art Briles exited to do the college football equivalent of repeatedly pounding your forehead against a cement wall (ie. coach at Baylor). Texas Christian won its last two games to get bowl-eligible.
Prediction: Houston 24, TCU 19

Emerald Bowl
OREGON STATE (8-4) vs. MARYLAND (6-6)
Maryland beat a pair of top-10 teams this season, but struggled down the stretch.
Prediction: Oregon State 28, Maryland 14

Dec. 29

Meineke Car Care Bowl
CONNECTICUT (9-3) vs. WAKE FOREST (8-4)
Wake Forest head coach Jim Grobe has seemingly been mentioned for every available job vacancy this offseason, and with good reason -- he’s winning at Wake freaking Forest.
Wake Forest was smart to lock him into a 10-year contract extension.
Prediction: Wake Forest 17, UConn 13

Liberty Bowl
MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-5) vs. UCF (10-3)
Mississippi State coach Sylvester Croom was an easy choice for SEC Coach of the Year honors given the turnaround he’s engineered. This could be a surprisingly good bowl matchup with Croom’s physical defense facing UCF tailback Kevin Smith (2,448 yards, 29 touchdowns).
Prediction: UCF 20, Mississippi State 16

Alamo Bowl
TEXAS A&M (7-5) vs. PENN STATE (8-4)
Joe Paterno will coach in his 500th game as the Nittany Lions’ head coach. Gary Darnell will be working his first and only game as Texas A&M’s head coach following Dennis Franchione’s resignation. Advantage JoePa.
Prediction: Penn State 16, Texas A&M 10

Dec. 30

Independence Bowl
ALABAMA (6-6) vs. COLORADO (6-6)
Alabama’s last victory came on Oct. 20 against Tennessee. Since then, the Crimson Tide has been reeling from the suspension of players for improper receipt of textbooks, head coach Nick Saban’s 9-11/Pearl Harbor comments and a sixth straight loss to Auburn. While a strong incoming recruiting class will help down the line, the Tide needs to avoid a losing season to improve perception now.
Prediction: Alabama 17, Colorado 14

Dec. 31

Armed Forces Bowl
AIR FORCE (9-3) vs. CAL (6-6)
Cal appeared to be on course for a major bowl after early victories over Tennessee and Oregon, but lost its way in losing six of its last seven games.
Prediction: Air Force 28, Cal 27

Humanitarian Bowl
FRESNO STATE (8-4) vs. GEORGIA TECH (7-5)
It’s unclear if Georgia Tech defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta, the interim coach for the Yellow Jackets in this game, will be asked to remain on incoming coach Paul Johnson’s staff. A shut-down effort by his defense in this game couldn’t hurt his cause.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 19, Fresno State 13

Sun Bowl
SOUTH FLORIDA (9-3) vs. OREGON (8-4)
Both teams were ranked as high as No. 2 in the country before falling back in the pack. Had Oregon quarterback Dennis Dixon not torn knee ligaments late in the season, the Ducks might have been playing for the national title.
Prediction: South Florida 23, Oregon 21

Music City Bowl
FLORIDA STATE (7-5) vs. KENTUCKY (7-5)
Florida State offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher has been named the successor-in-waiting for head coach Bobby Bowden should he ever decide to retire. That may or may not be a good thing seeing as how the Seminoles ranked 86th nationally in total offense. The ’Noles may lack more punch than usual since an academic cheating scandal will force some key players to miss this game.
Prediction: Kentucky 21, FSU 17

Insight Bowl
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-6) vs. INDIANA (7-5)
Mike Gundy’s ‘‘I’m a man! I’m 40!’’ rant had such a galvanzing effect on Oklahoma State that the Cowboys actually played their way into bowl eligibility. Consider that one giant step for Mankind.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 27, Indiana 20

Chick-fil-A Bowl
AUBURN (8-4) vs. CLEMSON (9-3)
Auburn owns one of the nation’s best defenses, allowing 298.3 yards and 16.7 points per game. The Tigers will have to be particularly stingy against a Clemson team that features a productive tailback tandem in James Davis and C.J. Spiller.
Prediction: Clemson 20, Auburn 14

Jan. 1

Cotton Bowl
MISSOURI (11-2) vs. ARKANSAS (8-4)
Missouri should be primed to prove a point after being shut out of a BCS bid, but the Tigers will still have a tough time slowing down Arkansas tailback Darren McFadden.
Prediction: Arkansas 28, Missouri 24

Outback Bowl
TENNESSEE (9-4) vs. WISCONSIN (9-3)
Wisconsin tailback P.J. Hill may not play, which would certainly make Tennessee coach Phil Fulmer happy.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Wisconsin 16

Capital One Bowl
No. 12 FLORIDA (9-3) vs. MICHIGAN (8-4)
Incoming Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez wouldn't mind having a QB like Heisman winner Tim Tebow to run his version of the spread. The Wolverines, who closed the season with consecutive losses, will have trouble dealing with Florida’s team speed.
Prediction: Florida 42, Michigan 20

Gator Bowl
VIRGINIA (9-3) vs. TEXAS TECH (8-4)
Virginia features one of the best defensive linemen in the nation in Chris Long, but Texas Tech’s quick-fire spread offense should neutralize him.
Prediction: Texas Tech 31, Virginia 21

Rose Bowl
USC (10-2) vs. ILLINOIS (9-3)
Fleet-footed Illinois quarterback Juice Williams will have difficulty getting loose against Southern Cal’s fast defense.
Prediction: USC 27, Illinois 17

Sugar Bowl
GEORGIA (10-2) vs. HAWAII (12-0)
Georgia might well be the hottest team in the country, while Hawaii should be steamed that it took it so long to get noticed. Those factors guarantee an entertaining game and a contrast in style. Look for Georgia’s tailback tandem of Knowshon Moreno and Thomas Brown to give the Bulldogs the advantage.
Prediction: Georgia 37, Hawaii 28

Jan. 2

Fiesta Bowl
OKLAHOMA (11-2) vs. WEST VIRGINIA (10-2)
West Virginia might still be reeling from the loss of head coach Rich Rodriguez and its stunning loss to unranked Pittsburgh. In contrast, Oklahoma proved it’s as good as anyone else in the country with a 38-17 thumping of Missouri in the Big 12 title game.
Prediction: Oklahoma 31, West Virgina 24

Jan. 3

Orange Bowl
VIRGINIA TECH (11-2) vs. KANSAS (11-1)
Kansas led the Big 12 in scoring with an average of 44.3 points per game, but the Jayhawks undoubtedly benefited from a soft schedule.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 28, Kansas 24

Jan. 5

International Bowl
RUTGERS vs. BALL STATE
Rutgers coach Greg Schiano briefly flirted with Michigan, but he’s got a good thing going in Jersey. Tailback Ray Rice should run wild against Ball State.
Prediction: Rutgers 34, Ball State 26

Jan. 6

GMAC Bowl
TULSA (9-4) vs. BOWLING GREEN (8-4)
OK, how did this game wind up as the final appetizer before the BCS national championship?
Prediction: Tulsa 41, Bowling Green 34

Jan. 7

BCS National Championship Game
OHIO STATE (11-1) vs. LSU (11-2)
Ohio State has allowed just two rushing touchdowns all season, but a 28-21 home loss to Illinois showed the Buckeyes remain vulnerable to versatile offenses with speedy skill players. Ohio State was exposed as a fraud by Florida in last season’s BCS title game. While the Buckeyes appear more deserving of a title shot this season, they’ll still find themselves at a deficit in the category of team speed.
LSU’s defensive front will be tough too to block while receivers Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd will prove difficult to cover.
Prediction: LSU 31, Ohio State 24