Wednesday, October 17, 2007

This week’s Pigskin Picks

Got blindsided by Kentucky last week, but then again, so did LSU.
Still managed to go a sterling 10-2, bringing your college football oracle’s season record to 85-33.
Here’s how this week’s games should go down:

Thursday night appetizer

No. 2 South Florida (6-0) at Rutgers (4-2)
Ladies and gentlemen, introducing your fly in the 2007-08 Bowl Championship Series punch bowl ... the South Florida Bulls. The herd of undefeated teams thins out each week, but I like the Bulls’ chances of running the table. Defensive end George Selvie has been unblockable and there’s an abundance of speed on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: South Florida 34, Rutgers 28

Saturday

Southeastern Conference

No. 17 Auburn (5-2) at No. 4 LSU (6-1)
Auburn will go on the road as an underdog again, but the Tigers have won 14 of their last 15 SEC games away from home. Given the gusto with which Auburn plays defense, this should be a tight helmet-knocker of a game. Defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, whom an ESPN boom microphone caught praising his defense in technicolor speak (‘‘Boom! Knock those mutha(bleep)’s out!’’) after a crucial stop, should devise a way to frustrate LSU.
LSU’s passing game hasn't been especially fluid the last few weeks, so Auburn could engineer an upset if they make the Bayou Tigers one-dimensional.
I’m betting that it happens because Muschamp is proving to be one bad, strategic mutha-(what he said).
Prediction: Auburn 14, LSU 10

No. 21 Tennessee (4-2) at Alabama (5-2)
The Third Saturday of October doesn’t have quite the same allure. Attention will mostly be focused elsewhere (ie. Baton Rouge and Lexington), but this game will certainly factor into the SEC championship equation.
Alabama escaped plucky Ole Miss with the help of a controversial replay ruling, while Tennessee has quietly improved since its two early losses.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Alabama 20

Vanderbilt (3-3) at No. 6 South Carolina (6-1)
South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier is known for offense, but the Gamecocks’ defense has been phenomenal this season. They rank third nationally in pass defense, allowing just 149.1 yards per game and a 49.3 percent completion rate.
Prediction: South Carolina 28, Vanderbilt 13

No. 15 Florida (4-2) at No. 7 Kentucky (6-1)
Kentucky quarterback Andre Woodson put himself back in Heisman Trophy contention with a stellar performance against formerly top-ranked LSU. The stat that mattered most from that game, however, was the absence of quarterback sacks by LSU. I think Florida could be the best two-loss team in the country, but Kentucky has momentum and confidence.
Prediction: Kentucky 27, Florida 23

Mississippi State (4-3) at No. 9 West Virginia (5-1)
Tempted to pick upset here, simply because Mississippi State has played everyone but LSU close this season. The Bulldogs have been pretty salty on defense, thanks to Titus Brown, but West Virginia’s spread option offense is always productive. Only South Florida has solved the puzzle this season.
Prediction: West Virginia 24, Mississippi State 13

Arkansas (3-3) at Ole Miss (2-5)
Arkansas has shown the repeated ability to lose-from-in-front, which has done nothing to endear head coach Houston Nutt to Razorback Nation. It’s odd that the defending SEC West champs would be 0-3 in the league at this point despite having the nation’s most productive running game.
Prediction: Arkansas 28, Ole Miss 20

Atlantic Coast Conference

Army (3-4) at Georgia Tech (4-3)
Georgia Tech has been all over the place this season. Just when they start to resemble Georgia Yech, tailback Tashard Choice bails them out with one of his patented 35-carry, 150-yard afternoons.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 31, Army 13

Miami (4-3) at Florida State (4-2)
Remember when this game mattered?
Yeah, those images are starting to fade from my mind too.
Prediction: FSU 17, Miami 16

No. 19 Virginia (6-1) at Maryland (4-2)
People have been waiting for the wheels to fall off the Al Groh Express. We could see the lugnuts loosened this week.
Prediction: Maryland 23, Virginia 20.

Wake Forest (4-2) at Navy (4-2)
Wake Forest has been stingy against the run, allowing 100 yards per game on the ground, but Navy's triple option will present some difficulties. The Demon Deacons have won four straight and could emerge as a spoiler in the ACC East.
Prediction: Wake Forest 31, Navy 27

Central Michigan (4-3) at Clemson (4-2)
Clemson represents the ACC’s most confounding team not named Georgia Tech. The Tigers’ special teams have been horrible at times this season, but their defense should be good enough to limit Central Michigan’s potent passing attack.
Prediction: Clemson 38, Central Michigan 21

North Carolina State (1-5) at East Carolina (4-3)
Do you think N.C. State coach Tom O’Brien regrets on bailing out at Boston College?
Prediction: East Carolina 24, N.C. State 14

Sun Belt

North Texas (0-6) at Troy (4-2)
Troy QB Omar Haugabook should pass for 300-plus yards against North Texas' inept defense.
Prediction: Troy 45, North Texas 10

National games of interest

Michigan State at No. 1 Ohio State
No, Ohio State really hasn’t played anyone especially good yet.
Yes, Michigan State’s offense could put some dents in the scoreboard.
No, an upset won’t happen.
But take heart, Buckeye-haters. A loss is bound to happen in a finishing run that includes Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois and a resurgent Michigan.
Prediction: Ohio State 27, Michigan State 20

No. 24 Texas Tech (6-1) at No. 16 Missouri (5-1)
Texas Tech has won three straight games by a combined margin of 152-31. The Red Raiders are better on defense this year, but they’ll have to step it up against Mizzou QB Chase Daniel (345.5 passing yards per game). Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell should match him yard-for-yard.
Prediction: Texas Tech 42, Mizzou 38

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