Bracket going bust

How’s your NCAA tournament bracket doing?
Yeah, mine too.
The good news is that my pre-tournament Final Four picks -- Florida, Kansas, Georgetown and Texas A&M -- are still dribbling at this point. The bad news is that, for the second straight year, my wife is absolutely killing me on overall picks and stands to win our mutual wager. The loser picks up dinner at a restaurant of the winner's choice and, well, it looks like I'd better start warming up the old Visa card in the bullpen.
I know where I went wrong. I bought into the notion that this tournament would produce another warm-and-fuzzy George Mason, a team with pedestrian credentials that would shock the basketball world by reaching the Final Four as a 10 or 11 seed. So, as you can imagine, I received a rude awakening that fairy tales aren't written every year.
I thought I was smart to pick a mid-major from Virginia to spring a first-round upset. I picked the wrong one. Should've gone with Virginia Commonwealth instead of Old Dominion. In retrospect, it was also a terrible idea to pick Arkansas over Southern Cal in the first round. Apparently, I learned nothing from their last two football meetings (cumulative score: USC 2,367,521 ... Arkansas 3).
Live and learn.
So today, I'm trying to regain whatever street cred I lost as a prognosticator.
Let's take a look at this week’s Sweet 16 matchups.

SOUTH REGIONAL
(3) Texas A&M vs. (2) Memphis
Breakdown: In addition to having a clutch shooter and unparalleled playmaker in guard Acie Law IV, Texas A&M possesses a team full of lock-down specialists. The Aggies give up 59.3 points per game and practically crawl inside the jerseys of 3-point shooters. They allow opponents to make just 29.4 percent of their 3-pointers, and that means Memphis could be in trouble. The Tigers excel in transition, but could have difficulty forcing the tempo if leading scorer Chris Douglas-Roberts is sidelined by a balky ankle.
Prediction: Still sticking with the Aggies. I'm thinking Law, aka Captain Clutch, makes the difference late. Texas A&M 71, Memphis 66.

(1) Ohio State vs. (5) Tennessee
Breakdown: The size differential is about as profound as it gets. Ohio State has a well-rounded 7-footer in freshman Greg Oden. Tennessee has a 6-foot-4 quasi-power forward in Dane Bradshaw. Actually, the Vols don't fit traditional position descriptions because they play all over the court. If Chris Lofton and Bradshaw are burying 3-pointers, it will reduce Oden's impact.
Prediction: I think Ohio State is vulnerable. Xavier should have finished off the Buckeyes over the weekend. Tennessee won't be fazed by OSU's talent, having lost to the Buckeyes 68-66 in January. ... In an upset, I'm thinking Tennessee 79, OSU 74.

WEST REGIONAL
(1) Kansas vs. (4) Southern Illinois
Breakdown: I love, love, love the way Southern Illinois plays. There's a cockiness about the Salukis, who have played man-to-man defense on every possession this season. They are small but physical and will challenge anybody. That said, Kansas has too many offensive options for them. Don't see how the Salukis are going to solve Brandon Rush, who absolutely decimated Kentucky.
Prediction: Sorry, Salukis. ... Kansas 80, Southern Illinois 68.

(2) UCLA vs. (3) Pittsburgh
Breakdown: Thanks to the matchup of Ben Howland vs. his former Pitt assistant, we'll see the Mentor vs. Student story that CBS loves so much. Pitt center Aaron Gray could be a factor, but UCLA has quickness at every position. They've also proven they can play a halfcourt game, as evidenced by their ability to hold their first two tournament opponents to a combined 91 points.
Prediction: Arron Afflalo breaks out of his shooting slump. UCLA 75, Pitt 67.

EAST REGIONAL
(2) Georgetown vs. (6) Vanderbilt
Breakdown: Vanderbilt might be the most frightening draw among the non-No. 1 and 2 seeds. The Commodores can spread the court and bury you with 3-pointers. SEC player of the year Derrick Byars went berserk against Washington State, scoring 15 of his 27 points on treys. Note to Georgetown: Box-and-one? Of course, Vanderbilt will have trouble doing anything inside the line if Georgetown center Roy Hibbert stays out of foul trouble. The kid looks like Patrick Ewing of a lesser god.
Prediction: Both teams run variations of the Princeton offense. G'town might run theirs a little bit better... Hoya Paranoia 61, Vanderbilt 57.

(1) UNC vs. (5) USC
Breakdown: UNC sophomore forward Tyler Hansbrough took off the Phantom of the Opera mask he wore after having his nose broken against Duke and absolutely went off against Michigan State. The Heels push the ball and have an athletic frontcourt led by Hansbrough and Brandan Wright.
Prediction: UNC 84, USC 71.

MIDWEST REGIONAL
(1) Florida vs. (5) Butler
Breakdown: The Gators have outscored their first two tournament opponents by 46 points in the second half. They have yet to play a complete game in the NCAA tournament and that doesn't bode well for plucky Butler. Look for Florida forward Corey Brewer to provide an impossible matchup for the Bulldogs.
Prediction: Florida 70, Butler 56.

(3) Oregon vs. (7) UNLV
Breakdown: Oregon doesn't have a deep bench, but the Ducks have been one of the hottest teams down the stretch this season. They've won eight games in a row, largely because they defend well and make their free throws (75.6 percent as a team). UNLV has a solid backcourt with Kevin Kruger and the wonderfully-named Wink Adams, but will have trouble slowing down the Ducks.
Prediction: In the words of a certain spokesduck ... Af-lac! Oregon 83, UNLV 76.